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HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS A GIVEN WITH THIS SCENARIO FOR THE SIERRA AND THIS 3 DAY PERIOD COULD RESULT IN SNOW AMOUNTS THAT RIVAL SOME OF THE HEAVIER MULTI-DAY STORMS IN THE PAST 50 YEARS. SNOW LEVELS WILL FLUCTUATE AS THE SHORTWAVES MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AS SNOW BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT SNOW LEVELS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 7K BUT MORE LIKELY WILL BE AROUND 6K. THIS WOULD BRING SNOW TO THE TAHOE BASIN AND PROBABLY DOWN TO LAKE LEVEL. ON FRIDAY SPILLOVER SNOW ON SOME WESTERN VALLEY FLOORS IS LIKELY AS SNOW LEVELS DROP TO 5000 FEET AND POSSIBLY LOWER. SNOW LEVELS MAY RISE AGAIN ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH LATER SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER POSSIBILITY FOR SPILLOVER RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE VALLEYS.

IN SUMMARY…WHILE THE SIERRA COULD SEE 5 TO 10 FEET OF SNOW OR MORE THROUGH THIS EVENT…THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY FOR 2 TO 3 FEET AT LAKE LEVEL. ACCUMULATIONS IN WESTERN VALLEYS WILL BE MOST LIKELY ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY. COULD SEE AMOUNTS OF UP TO A FOOT IN SURPRISE VALLEY WHERE MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW. FOR THE RENO-CARSON AREAS SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY BUT WHETHER IT IS IN THE FORM OF MOSTLY RAIN ON THE VALLEY FLOORS AND SNOW IN THE  FOOTHILLS OR SNOW DOWN TO VALLEY FLOORS DEPENDS UPON STRENGTH OF DYNAMICS. WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY SNOW LEVELS SHOULD EASILY DROP TO ALL VALLEY FLOORS.

NOAA LONG TERM FORECAST

.LONG TERM…WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY… BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE PUSHES EWD TO THE CENTRAL CONUS IN PROGRESSIVE FLOW. A STRONG LOW DEVELOPS AROUND 38N/138W WHICH BECOMES THE FIRST WEATHER MAKER FOR THE SIERRA AS WE MOVE INTO THIS ACTIVE AND WET PERIOD.

A SERIES OF STORMS WILL PUSH INTO THE WEST COAST AS A STRONG ALEUTION LOW RETAINS A MEAN TROUGH IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE FIRST SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE SIERRA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON…WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ON ITS HEELS SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY BREAK IN PRECIPITATION FOR THE SIERRA ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS…AND THERE ARE ALREADY HINTS OF THE BEGINNINGS OF A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TAP WITH THE SYSTEM THAT IS NOW EAST OF JAPAN. BY THE END OF THE WEEK A STRONG ZONAL AND MOIST FLOW STRETCHES ACROSS THE ENTIRE PACIFIC.

HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS A GIVEN WITH THIS SCENARIO FOR THE SIERRA. QUESTIONS ARE SNOW LEVELS…SNOW/RAIN AMOUNTS AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE WESTERN NV VALLEYS. GOING STRICTLY OFF MODEL PROJECTIONS…THE SIERRA COULD BE IN FOR A 3-DAY EVENT RESULTING IN 5 INCHES…LOW END…TO 10 INCHES OF LIQUID…HIGH END…AND SNOWFALL MEASURED IN FEET.

(1 inch of Liquid = 1 foot of Snow)

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